New DRC Ebola Case Burden Declining: Good News.
October 13, 2019

While the situation in Tanzania remains unclear, due to governmental opacity — over in the neighboring DRC, as of Friday night local time, the figures look to be turning the corner, toward. . . an arrest of the latest ebola outbreak in Africa.

That is decidedly good news. Here is a bit — from the latest situation report — out of the WHO:

. . . .The number of reported cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) consistently declined in recent weeks, with 14 new confirmed cases reported in North Kivu and Ituri provinces during the epidemiological week of 30 September through 6 October. . . . At peak transmission in April 2019, there were 126 cases in the week. Although the decline in case incidence is encouraging, it must be interpreted with caution as the situation remains highly contingent upon the level of access and security. . . .

In mid-September, serious security incidents in Lwemba Health Area, Mandima Health Zone, stalled outbreak response activities for more than two weeks. To improve confidence and community engagement in response activities, an open forum for discussion and reconciliation was held in Lwemba with partners and civil society last week. Response activities have since resumed but remain limited. Improved access may result in enhanced case finding and contact tracing therefore could result in an increase in the number of reported cases and contacts in the area.

There is a shift in hot spots from urban settings to more rural, hard-to-reach communities, across a more concentrated geographical area. During the past 21 days (from 18 September through 8 October), a total of 59 confirmed cases were reported from ten health zones. . . with almost four out of five confirmed cases from four health zones: Mandima (31%, n=18), Mambasa (29%, n=17), Komanda (10%, n=6), Oicha (8%, n=5). . . .

While ensuring the safety of health workers still remains a formidable challenge, the numbers are finally headed south.
Onward — and now you know — heading to the airport, grinning — ever grinning.

नमस्ते