Already, As Most Of America Is Being Vaccinated — Pfizer Is Thinking About, And Planning, The NEXT mRNA Candidate…

The ground is shifting, in mRNA land. In truth this happens with every wild bio-science success. The same happened in immuno oncology, about seven years ago — and in the “next gen” drugs for Hep C (essentially, “cures”), about nine years ago. The major multinationals always come in, and come in heavy, once the concept is proven to apply to more than one high burden disease arena [here, both Ebola and COVID-19].

Pfizer’s CEO Boura has made it fairly plain. He will indeed pursue additional, future applications of the mRNA approach (in viruses, as well as other immuno-involved / biological disorders), on his own — with Pfizer’s perhaps $40 billion of available capital, at his disposal. This will make future new revenue streams, beyond COVID-19, harder to come by, in size — for more modest outfits, like Moderna. It simply won’t have the balance sheet to “go big, and go fast” in multiple diseases, all at once.

But Merck will — and it too has a long legacy in vaccines. In fact, it is contract manufacturing for JNJ right now, on COVID-19. So, Pfizer won’t likely have the entire playing field to itself, in any event. Here is the latest, from Motley Fool:

. . .While Pfizer’s entry into the mRNA arena is disastrous news for clinical-stage companies developing mRNA-based drugs, BioNTech and Moderna will get plenty of chances to expand their horizons. In 2021, Pfizer expects COVID-19 vaccine revenue to reach about $15 billion based on existing contracts. BioNTech is entitled to half the profits the vaccine generates.

This year Moderna expects $18.4 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales. The amount expected to reach the company’s bottom line this year isn’t quite clear, but it will be enough to race forward with a potential new vaccine for cytomegalovirus (CMV) currently in late-stage clinical trials. . . .

There will be plenty of revenue for all, to be certain, on this go ’round, but the future of mRNA is likely to belong to the Pfizers and Mercks of the world. Once the basic approach is understood (as now), additional disease states are mostly a resource allocation question. And Merck and Pfizer have nearly limitless resources, and home grown talent and facilities — to pursue the known, or as yet unknown. . . disease

It will be fascinating to watch — as we may be on the cusp of a new revolution in therapeutic approaches to many many high burden disease states.


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