Given that the global giant we follow will announce Q2 2016 earnings tomorrow morning, I thought I’d post a global-looking item I ran across Sunday night. I think this is one of the best short form blog spots I’ve yet read — on what we might actually, soberly expect from Brexit, some time at least two years from now, should it all come to pass, along the lines people envisioned a month ago (that’s our original one on it — along the below lines, from June of 2016).
It is balanced, level headed and sets forth what a glacial process this will be — along with the high probability of some significant melting (material modifications to the process), along the way. Do go read it all:
. . . .[I]t is worth noting that Switzerland and Norway are able to benefit from membership in the European Free Trade Association without being EU member states (Complicating matters, control over immigration was one of the rallying cries for the Brexit “Leave” vote, but the EU trade agreements with Norway and Switzerland come with requirements for free movement of people).
So, in broad economic terms the UK could come out ahead. The UK has a trade imbalance with the rest of the EU; it imports more from the EU than it exports, so it is less reliant on EU as a market than the EU is on the UK for its market. Accordingly it is likely that the UK will be able to negotiate trade agreements on favorable terms. . . .
[And in equal time land, for those of you who need the counter-view — or a more alarmist take — go read this from people selling consulting services, about Brexit doom scenarios. They have a vested interest in making it all quite scary of course.]
Onward — soaring actually, after an earlier unhinged near treasonous melt-down by Mr. Trump at a press conference, and then, in perfect counter-point, a transcendent speech by our 44th President last night — perhaps the best one he’s ever given. He simply buried Mr. Trump’s home-grown demagogue rhetoric — in hope. The audacity of hope. That is the America I know and love.